Happy NFL week 4 to all my Parlay Buddies! My name is Corey, and I am the co-host of the Parlay Buddy Show and the Pick’em Wars Podcast, here to provide you with my personal take on the 2022 NFL Season’s Week 4 spreads. Make sure you watch the Parlay Buddy Show for your weekly premium picks right here on www.parlaybuddy.com. For more NFL week 4 content, you can also check out the Pick’em Wars Podcast with Luke and Corey, available on all the major platforms including Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, SoundCloud, and Spotify.
DOLPHINS v BENGALS -3
I see a lot of the experts favoring Burrow after Tua’s injury scare and the Bengals decisive win over the NY Jets in week 3. What the experts don’t seem to understand is this new Miami’s fire, this new found drive that started mid/late last season and has culminated in a team that has so much momentum, even the best quarterbacks in the league, providing top tier performances just can’t seem to stop the Dolphins. It doesn’t matter that Burrow is a great qb, it doesn’t matter that his style actually favors the Miami blitz. Miami has defeated every team they have faced this season, and if Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen couldn’t stop them, I don’t see Burrow doing it either. My Pick: DOLPHINS
VIKINGS v SAINTS -3.5
After a game in which the Lions could have won in Week 3, the Vikings came away with a more defined run game, taking a little bit of the pressure off of Justin Jefferson. The Saints, on the other hand, continue to struggle through injuries, and a defense that has not been able to keep up so far this season. Jameis Winston won’t have enough weapons, and the NO defense will not be able to control Cousins enough. Look for the Vikings by about one TD. My Pick: VIKINGS
-1.5 BROWNS v FALCONS
The only game this season in which the Browns were closer in the spread than 2 points was in their upsetting loss to the Jets in week 2. Otherwise, Cleveland has put up some relatively impressive numbers in the first few weeks. Nick Chubb will be part of a crew that should have no problem getting through a lackluster Atlanta run defense, and on the other side of the ball, I don’t see Atlanta having the strength to keep up with the score. Call this one easily for the Browns. My Pick: BROWNS
COMMANDERS v COWBOYS -3
Cooper Rush and the rest of the Cowboys stepped up big time, and looked fairly impressive in doing so when they beat the Bengals in week 2, and the Giants last week. On a roll after losing Prescott to injury in week 1, in this game, look for Rush and company to put down a solid run game. Meanwhile, Carson Wentz has seemingly no protection, and no sense of self preservation, and the Cowboys defense should have no problem getting the win at home by more than 3. My Pick: COWBOYS
SEAHAWKS v LIONS -6
They may be 1-2, but the Lions are a scrappy 1-2. Putting up enough points to be contenders in every game they’ve played, the Lions will be at home to face a relatively meek Seattle team. The fact of the matter here is that the Lions were 3 points from defeating a solid looking Eagles team, defeated the Commanders, and also came very close to beating the Vikings last week. Meanwhile, Seattle started strong by taking out the Broncos by 1 point, then failed utterly against the 49ers, and taken out by an honestly weak (ish?) Falcons. There shouldn’t really be much debate on this one, -6 seems like a perfectly reasonable spread in favor of Detroit provided Chark and Hockensen can step up in the case of both Swift and St. Brown being benched momentarily. My Pick: LIONS
TITANS v COLTS -3
Let’s take this one head on, neither Tennessee, nor Indianapolis are looking great this season. In fact, forget not looking great, neither team is looking good this season. However, as far as the Colts go, last week was a very bright light after getting absolutely stuck in the tunnel of getting shut out by Jacksonville (which, after week 3, doesn’t seem quite as bad as it did when it happened). Indy actually defeated Patrick Mahommes and the KC Chiefs, and while they may not be out of that tunnel yet, they certainly can see that light. As far as the Titans are concerned, they managed to beat a Raiders team that just can’t seem to hit their stride yet despite some serious growth in the offense. The Titans just don’t seem to have much going for them other than Derrick Henry and this week, it’s entirely likely that the Titans defense is just the ticket for Jonathan Taylor to finally put up some serious numbers. My Pick: COLTS
BEARS v GIANTS -3
This match-up should be a bare knuckle brawl, with both teams aggressive in the run game, Jones v Fields will most likely not be very high scoring. I would say that Saquon Barkley should provide the Giants with all the edge they need to win the game. However, this year’s Bears are scrappier than usual, putting up numbers and effort that are not only surprising, but welcome in creating a fun NFC North lineup this season. As I said, this should be low scoring, but it should also be close, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bears keep it within 3 on either side of the win. My Pick: BEARS
JAGUARS v EAGLES -6.5
I don’t believe I have been fair to Jacksonville this season. I’ve approached them as I had the past two or three years, as a filler team, a team who is just there to pad other, better teams stats. To be frank, I was wrong and in the past two weeks, the Jags have shown a true grit and ability, shutting out the Colts and absolutely trouncing the chargers by 28 points. They face a real challenge with a strong Eagles squad fresh off an easy victory against the Commanders. Both teams have momentum and the rights weapons to make this a close, high scoring game. I just don’t feel comfortable with 6.5, my guess is we’re looking at a final score around 30-27 either way, so Jacksonville should be busting this spread. My Pick: JAGUARS
JETS v STEELERS -3.5
Zach Wilson returns to take the reigns back from Joe Flacco after a couple of rough weeks for both the Jets and the Steelers. The Steelers remain without the powerhouse, TJ Watt, and therefore, will be looking for ways to make up for that hole in the defense. Luckily for them, the Jets aren’t exactly looking great themselves, and it remains to be seen if Wilson can make up for any of the other shortcomings. Three and a half is not a far-fetched spread. My Pick: STEELERS
-3.5 BILLS v RAVENS
Both of these teams have been tripped up by Miami in recent weeks, and in altogether surprising ways. These failures did not come down to the two star quarterbacks in Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. Baltimore’s defense should face about as much of a challenge as they did against Miami due to their perceived need to go with the blitz, while Jackson’s dynamic play calling will create a challenge for Buffalo. This is definitely one of the harder spreads to call, but when it comes to these qbs and defenses, it’s going to be another points war. I don’t see either team winning by more than 3. My Pick: BALTIMORE
-5 CHARGERS v TEXANS
After a somewhat promising start, Davis Mills’ star seems to be fading a bit as the season progresses, just not putting up the numbers required to be a real contender. At the same time, Justin Herbert hit a snag after a particularly rough hit had him nursing his ribs over the past two weeks. This game is likely to be a therapeutic road game for the Chargers with Herbert getting a bit more rest, and having all of his weapons to choose from on Sunday. My Pick: CHARGERS
CARDINALS v PANTHERS -2
Both Heisman Trophy winners and first round draft picks from Oklahoma, Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray haven’t been performing as well as they could be this season. Mayfield specifically is having issues in mismanaging his use of what should be an effective arsenal of weapons. As long as Murray can get out of his own head and take a tighter grip on the offensive reigns, the Cardinals should have no trouble winning by well more than 2 points. My Pick: ARIZONA
PATRIOTS v PACKERS -10.5
Perhaps it’s my personal bias as a Lions fan that had me seriously doubting what Aaron Rogers is capable of without a few big weapons, but even so, he’s started to show he can perform with this season’s Packers offense. Rogers did his job last week in winning what may be the final Brady/Rogers showdown. Mac Jones is out with an injury leaving Brian Hoyer to take on a rising GB defense. This one shouldn’t be pretty for NE and I’m guessing with lose by twice the spread. My Pick: PACKERS
BRONCOS v RAIDERS -2
Derek Carr and Russell Wilson have the talent, they have the weapons, and Carr, at the very least, seems to finally be gaining some traction when it comes to clicking with his offense. Unfortunately for Wilson, the same is not evident, and although their defense has done well, I don’t believe it will be enough to stop a Raiders team this hungry for a win, and at home no less. -2 is a fair assessment. My Pick: RAIDERS
-2.5 CHIEFS v BUCCANEERS
Tom Brady should have some weapons back for this game, but is it too little too late? Not if you count the fact that he did manage to close the gap with GB. The Chiefs offense has always seemed to have trouble against this TB Defense (see Super Bowl 55). Expect the Buccaneers to bust the 2.5 point spread and keep it close, possibly even winning this week. My Pick: BUCCANEERS
RAMS v 49ERS -2.5
I love a division rivalry and this one is usually a great one to catch. With Stafford and Jimmy G both struggling with the season start, this one will most likely come down to defense. Going by the numbers, the defensive edge belongs to SF. Look for a grind of a game unless one of these qbs finally wakes up and starts performing like we know they can, I’ve got to give this spread to SF. My Pick: 49ERS
That’s it for Week 4. For more in depth opinions and analysis, make sure to check out the Pick’em Wars Podcast and watch The Parlay Buddy Show for free premium picks. Both shows released every Friday!
